Can Super Saver make it two in a Row?

Horseracing Betting Lines

05/14/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Only one horse has a chance to win the Triple Crown and that's Kentucky Derby champion Super Saver. The Todd Pletcher-trained colt will take the next step towards racing immortality this Saturday in the Preakness Stakes at Pimlico.

Super Saver benefited from a dream trip two weeks ago when jockey Calvin Borel hugged the rail throughout most of the Derby before drawing off to an easy 2 1/2-length victory over the fast-closing Ice Box. Borel has now won three of the last four Triple Crown events, including the 2009 Preakness aboard Rachel Alexandra.

Can Super Saver duplicate his previous outstanding performance? It's quite possible, but the morning line favorite will not have the luxury of a sloppy race course this time around. That could be a huge factor since two of his three lifetime wins have come on off-tracks. In addition, the WinStar Farm homebred will not be running at Churchill Downs, a surface he absolutely adores.

There's no doubt the Derby winner is a very good colt in a year in which the three-year-old crop is loaded with average horses. But he has never posted back-to-back wins in his seven-race career, and his odds this coming Saturday will be much lower than the 8-1 the public received two weeks ago.

Super Saver's main competitor is Kentucky Derby favorite, Lookin At Lucky. The Bob Baffert-trained colt comes into the Preakness with a different jockey for the first time as Martin Garcia replaces Garrett Gomez in the saddle.

Trouble is this colt's middle name and the Kentucky Derby was just another in a long line of miserable trips for the son of Smart Strike.

Most public handicappers shied away from Lookin At Lucky in the Derby after the colt drew the inside post position in the 20-horse field. The two-year-old champ felt the consequences right away getting pushed from the eighth spot all the way back to 18th in a matter of seconds.

Lookin At Lucky still made an impressive move, closing from 18th to sixth as the field moved through the stretch, but he ran out of gas inside the final furlong without improving his position.

Even if Lookin At Lucky receives a better trip this Saturday, winning the Preakness might be asking a lot for this California-based three-year-old. It's been almost a decade since the last time a West Coast horse (Point Given in 2001) won the Preakness.

Moreover, it's hard to bet on a horse that consistently finds himself in tight quarters each and every race, especially as the probable second choice.

OTHER KEY CONTENDERS

Paddy O'Prado sports in-the-money finishes in six of his last seven appearances, including a third in the Kentucky Derby.

After racing just off the lead in his two previous starts, the son of El Prado came off the pace at Churchill Downs getting a similar rail trip to Super Saver. The only difference was the winner had a free and clear path while Paddy O'Prado had to veer in and out behind tiring horses.

There's no denying the fact he could improve on his third-place effort with a better trip, but don't forget, he still has won only one race in his seven- race career, not the prototypical record for a Preakness winner.

Super Saver's other three main challengers did not run in the Kentucky Derby.

Schoolyard Dreams makes his first start in six weeks after a dismal fourth to Eskendereya in the Wood Memorial, and after the race, trainer Derek Ryan revealed the horse was less than 100 percent due to a slight throat problem.

Prior to that effort, the son of Stephen Got Even made a huge middle move in the Tampa Bay Derby, wresting the lead away from Super Saver around the final turn before losing to Odysseus by a nose. On the negative side, that race was already his third start in 2010 while Super Saver was making his first appearances in over three months.

Also, it's unclear whether Schoolyard Dreams will be as effective at the 1 3/16-mile distance compared to 1 1/16-miles, so proceed with caution at the betting windows.

Caracortado is another three-year-old that finished fourth in his latest race. However, the gelding had a legitimate excuse in the Santa Anita Derby as he was interfered with by a fast fading Lookin At Lucky.

Trainer Michael Machowsky has trained Caracortado up to the Preakness working him seven furlongs in 1:24 3/5 in preparations for the colt's first trek over 1 1/8-miles.

Lightly-raced Yawanna Twist is the final horse with a shot at crossing the wire first on Saturday. His 30-1 morning line suggests little chance, but don't be deceived by that number. The stakes-placed three-year-old has as much talent as any other horse in this field.

His second-place finish in the Illinois Derby was a much better effort than it looked on paper. The race was only his fourth ever start and first away from his home base in New York.

It was also the first time Yawanna Twist stalked the leader on his own as he sat a length or two behind American Lion for the first six furlongs. He then ran head-and-head with the pacesetter from the far turn until the eighth-pole before failing to keep pace over the tiring and heavy Hawthorne surface.

Even with the loss, he still finished over 11 lengths ahead of the third-place finisher. That experience should give the son of Yonaguska the bottom he needs to improve even more in his fifth career start.

Yawanna Twist is also bred to handle the extra distance as both his grandsire (Cherokee Run - 1993) and damsire (Oliver's Twist - 1995) finished second in the Preakness.

Selections: 1) Yawanna Twist; 2) Super Saver; 3) Lookin At Lucky

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MySportsbook.com: NFL draft - The NFC South


In part two of MySportsbook.com’s draft preview, we’ll take a look at a division that was extremely disappointing last season: the NFC South.  Many “experts” predicted the Panthers to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl, of course they could not even make the playoffs in an extremely weak NFC.  The Saints definitely made up for the disappointing seasons of their NFC South brethren by exploding out of no where en route to the NFC Championship game.  For the avid NFL gambler, it is imperative to pay attention to the NFL draft.  Although free agency gets a ton of publicity, the successful franchises build their teams around the draft.

1. New Orleans Saints
Who would have thought this time last year that the Saints would be the favorites to win the NFC South for the 2007 campaign?  New Orleans is loaded with firepower on the offensive side of the ball but with the exodus of Joe Horn they will most likely look to draft a WR on Day 1.  Despite having the NFL’s 3rd ranked pass defense last season, the Saints will most likely upgrade their CB’s with one of their first two picks. Other possibilities for the Saints will be TE and DT.  Because of where they will be selecting (27th), the Saints could go the “best available player” route which could net a LB.

Key additions: Eric Johnson TE, Troy Evans LB, David Patten WR
Key loses: Joe Horn WR,
Team needs: CB, WR, TE, LB, DT
Possible draftees: Aaron Ross CB Texas, Darrelle Revis CB Pitt, Ted Ginn Jr. WR OSU, Paul Posluszny LB PSU, Chris Houston CB Arkansas, Greg Olsen TE Miami

2. Carolina Panthers
Carolina was one of the biggest disappointments in the NFL last season.  With the signing of David Carr, expect the very first quarterback controversy to come out of Carolina if Jake Delhomme doesn’t rebound quickly from an average 2007 season. With veteran safety Mike Minter getting up there in age, they will look to draft a safety on Day 1 but probably not in the first round.  LB is another need with the loss of Chris Draft to go along with Dan Morgan’s concussion problems.  If TE Greg Olsen is still on the board, he might be too good to pass up despite their needs on the defensive side of the ball.

Key additions: David Carr QB
Key loses: Chris Draft LB
Team needs: LB, TE, S, OT
Possible draftees: Greg Olsen TE Miami, Patrick Willis LB Ole Miss, Paul Posluszny LB PSU, Levi Brown OT PSU

3. Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons were another NFC South team to have a disappointing 2007 season.  The Falcons have been plenty busy during the off season with plenty of players coming and going including a new head coach.  The Falcons were able to improve their draft position with the trade of coveted backup QB Matt Schaub.  High on the list of Day 1 needs will be a defensive end to replace Patrick Kerney and a hard hitting safety since Lawyer Milloy is nearing the end of his career.  With an additional 2nd round pick, the Falcons could attempt to trade up to acquire local product WR Calvin Johnson. 

Key additions: Joey Harrington QB, Toniu Fonoti OG, Joe Horn WR
Key loses: Justin Griffen RB, Patrick Kerney DE, Matt Lehr OG, Ashley Lelie WR, Matt Schaub QB
Team needs: DE, S, OT, WR, DT
Possible draftees: LaRon Landry S LSU, Amobi Okoye DT Louisville, Levi Brown OT PSU, Jamaal Anderson DE Arkansas, Alan Branch DT Michigan

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Age really caught up to the Bucs last season.  The Bucs still have plenty of household names on defense in Ronde Barber, Simeon Rice and Derrick Brooks but the one thing those three have in common is unfortunately age.  It is imperative for the Bucs to get much younger, especially on the defensive side of the ball. Despite having bigger needs on the defensive side of the ball, WR Calvin Johnson is the most likely pick if he is still available when the Bucs pick at the four spot.  This would suit Bucs’ faithful just fine as Johnson is widely considered the top talent in the draft and it is a position of need for the Bucs.

Key additions: Jeff Garcia QB, Kevin Carter DE, Torrie Cox CB, Cato June LB
Key loses: Dewayne White DE, Sean Mahan OG
Team needs: WR, LB, DE, CB (Youth on defense!)
Possible draftees: Calvin Johnson WR Georgia Tech, Gains Adams DE Clemson, Jamaal Anderson DE Arkansas

It is never too early to start betting on the NFL. Log on to MySportsbook.com to checkout all of the NFL futures for the upcoming season.  On the clock: the NFC North

Odds to win the NFC South:
New Orleans Saints 8-5
Carolina Panthers 2-1
Atlanta Falcons 12-5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 9-2    

Odds to win the NFC:
New Orleans Saints 13-2
Carolina Panthers 7-1
Atlanta Falcons 20-1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 25-1

Odds to win the Super Bowl:
New Orleans Saints 18-1
Carolina Panthers 20-1
Atlanta Falcons 50-1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 75-1

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