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01/27/2012 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Celebrations don't seem to be agreeing with the Dallas Mavericks and the reigning NBA champs are probably glad they can put the ceremonies in the rearview mirror as they get ready to host the Utah Jazz.
The Mavs finally got their rings on Wednesday and followed that with a 105-90 setback to Minnesota. Dirk Nowitzki participated in the ceremony but not the loss, missing his third straight game with a sore knee. Jason Terry had a team-high 17 points and Shawn Marion chipped in 15, as the Mavericks' seven- game home win streak came to an end.
Dallas also failed to extend a 15-game franchise record in which it held its opponent to under 100 points.
For the Mavs, the scene was fairly reminiscent of Christmas Day, when the team unfurled its first-ever NBA championship banner to great excitement, then suffered a season-opening shellacking at the hands of the Heat.
"I think we're all happy that we don't have any more ceremonies for our championship so we can just concentrate on basketball," said Mavs guard Jason Kidd.
Dallas, which is 7-3 in North Texas this season, will finish up a four-game homestand against San Antonio on Sunday.
When the Mavs originally sat Nowitzki his absence was pegged at four games, meaning he will sit out again tonight as he continues to rest his knee and work on his conditioning.
The Jazz, meanwhile, are coming off a tough double-overtime loss to Toronto on Wednesday. Andrea Bargnani and Linas Kleiza scored 25 points apiece in that one as the Raptors snapped a 12-game losing streak against Utah with a 111-106 win.
It was Toronto's first win in the series since December 22, 2004.
The back-breaker for the Jazz in the second overtime was Jose Calderon's three-pointer from 10 feet behind the arc to beat the shot clock, giving Toronto a six-point lead with 86 seconds left.
The Jazz played without leading scorer Al Jefferson because of an inflamed right ankle, but still had an 18-point lead in the first quarter.
"It's a tough loss for us because we know we should have won the game," said Paul Millsap, who scored 31 points. "(It fell apart) in the second quarter. Our defense was poor."
Derrick Favors started for Jefferson and scored 16 with 12 rebounds. Raja Bell and C.J. Miles both had 11 points for Utah, which finished a four-game homestand at 2-2.
Jefferson didn't practice Thursday and will be a game-time decision tonight.
The Jazz have dropped five straight to the Mavs, including a 94-91 loss in Salt Lake City on Jan. 19. Utah has also lost two straight and 14 of its last 16 trips to Big D.
<< Blazers welcome Suns to Rip City
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Blazers haven't been much of a threat away from Rip
City this season but things have been far different when they are hitting the
hardwood in the Pacific Northwest.
Portland will shoot for its sixth straight win a
<< Thunder, Warriors collide in Oakland
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Western Conference-leading Thunder will kick off a
three-game road trip tonight when they visit Oakland to take on the Golden
State Warriors.
The Thunder (15-3) won their third straight game and for the 11th
<< Improved Pacers try to pass another test in Boston
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Indiana Pacers try to follow up their biggest win of
the season tonight when they head to Boston to face the Celtics at TD Garden.
Indiana picked up a big win over the Eastern Conference-leading Chicago Bulls
on Wednes
<< Magic try to rebound against Hornets
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - For three quarters last night it appeared the Orlando Magic
had erased all the memories of their worst shooting performance in franchise
history in a rematch with the Boston Celtics.
But a lousy final period sent the Magic
Bogut-less Bucks visit Bulls >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - It has been a season of frustration for Bucks center Andrew
Bogut and his latest setback will keep him out of action indefinitely. That
leaves Milwaukee a big hole in the middle this evening as it visits a Chicago
Bulls club
Wolves welcome Spurs to the Twin Cities >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Minnesota Timberwolves were able to snap a 16-game
losing streak to the San Antonio Spurs when the two clubs met in early January
and shoot for a rare win streak in the series tonight at the Target Center.
The Timberwo
Sixers try to bounce back vs. bumbling Bobcats >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Philadelphia 76ers try to bounce back from a rare loss
at home this evening when they welcome the hapless Charlotte Bobcats to the
Wells Fargo Center.
Philadelphia lost for only the second time in 10 tries in front of
Wagner will play FBS school for first time >>
Staten Island, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Wagner College football program will
open its 2012 season at Florida Atlantic - the Seahawks' first game against a
Football Bowl Subdivision school.
Wagner announced an 11-game schedule on Friday, beg
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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